Aztecs try to right ship in MWC clash with Cowboys

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Losers of three in a row, the 24th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs try to regain their footing tonight as they clash with the Wyoming Cowboys in Mountain West Conference action at Viejas Arena.

The Aztecs, who have not dropped four consecutive decisions since 2004-05 when the program was beaten in six straight at one juncture, had lost just three of their first 23 outings of the season before this recent slide. In addition to setbacks against UNLV and New Mexico, the two other premier programs in the MWC, somehow the Aztecs were caught off-guard by Air Force on Saturday in a 58-56 final. The loss to The Academy was the first in the last nine meetings between the teams and leaves the Aztecs tied for second place in the MWC with UNLV, trailing UNM.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are sort of in the same boat as SDSU, having dropped three straight outings and four of the last five. Failing to reach 60 points in three consecutive contests, Wyoming was beaten by Colorado State over the weekend in Fort Collins, 54-46. A bit further back in the standings than the Aztecs, the Pokes are sixth in the league at just 4-6 after having a strong start to conference play.

The Aztecs have never defeated Wyoming in five straight games during the all- time series, but SDSU has an opportunity to do just that tonight after taking a 52-42 win in the first meeting of the campaign in Laramie last month. With that victory the Aztecs moved closer to knotting up the series which currently stands at 37-33 in favor of the Pokes.

In front of a sold-out crowd for the most recent installment of the Border War, Wyoming came up quite small on offense as it bowed to Colorado State by eight points at Moby Arena. Luke Martinez accounted for a game-high 15 points and Francisco Cruz chipped in another 10, but it wasn't nearly enough for the visitors to compete. Outscored by a 14-5 margin at the free-throw line, Wyoming was held to just three offensive rebounds and 19 boards overall in the matchup. Even though he didn't show up as one of the scoring leaders over the weekend, Leonard Washington is still a primary producer for the Cowboys in conference play with his 13.9 ppg, shooting 51.6 percent from the floor while also clearing 7.4 rpg to pace the group. Martinez (11.9 ppg) and Cruz (11.8 ppg) help to carry some of the load for the Cowboys on offense, but it has been the defense that has carried the group this far, allowing league foes just 57.6 ppg.

It was a long time coming, but perhaps San Diego State's loss to Air Force could serve as a wake-up call to the Aztecs who may have thought they could cruise through the campaign. However, SDSU did have a built-in excuse since they were missing Jamaal Franklin who was held out with an ankle injury. With That Franklin watching from the sidelines, Chase Tapley tried to lead the team onto victory with his 17 points and nine rebounds, but it simply wasn't good enough. Tim Shelton added a double-double for the visitors to Clune Arena with his 13 points and 11 boards as the team shot just 18-of-52 from the floor and 3-of-16 beyond the arc. Jamaal Franklin is again not listed in the starting lineup tonight, which means if he fails to make an appearance the Aztecs again have to find a suitable alternative to his 16.0 ppg and 7.4 rpg, both of which pace the program. Tapley, one of the most experienced players in program history, is putting up 15.8 ppg as a 43.8 percent shooter from three-point range, but he can only do so much for SDSU when they are missing a critical piece at both ends of the floor.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.